Predicting the future

Technology predictions are a funny thing, particularly when people start predicting more than say 5 to 10 years in the future. This crystal ball gazing can often be very misguided and either too advanced or not go far enough. Robots are a classic example of something that haven't ever had very accurate predictions because some people don't realise the technological complexities involved in making anything close to replacing human functions. The UK's telecoms giant BT has futurologists who try to predict how technology will changes things and Digital Lifestyles have published an article about some of their latest predictions here.

Reading through the article I'm not convinced by many of the predictions happening for a long, long time if at all. The most significant statement I can see is the recognition for the need to rein back on our energy usage because of the coming shortages of fossil fuels like oil which we still need for our plastics.

I'm all for making predictions myself, I love thinking up new ideas and trying to think how new technology might change our lives but I realise this has to be grounded firmly in reality particularly if you are trying to think of real products to develop. It's all too easy to see someone preach about a utopian future where technology solves all of mankind's problems and makes things better for everyone. Often these predictions sound very clinical and almost never mention the problems they bring. No one told us at the start of the Internet revolution that for all the good things the Internet brings it would also bring spam, viruses, scams, fraud, etc. Everything new will bring something good and something bad and you need to consider all new technology in balance, the telephone was a communications revolution but we have to put with telesales calls as a result. Another point to consider is just how much people hold on to the past, just because a technology exists it doesn't mean anyone will use it until they are either forced or compelled to take it up and this gets harder with age. With an aging population we could actually see the rate of technology adoption slow down if we can't convince people of the benefits or make it easier for people to pick up.

Take another classic misprediction, the fabled videophone. Videophones have been around since the 60's and since then we've been told numerous times that they are the future but they never came close to taking off for many reasons. Even with videophones finally gaining the mass adoption they never had with the advent of 3G phones and networks most people rarely if ever use the videophone aspect. Why? My guess would be because it is often unnecessary and uncomfortable to have to talk face to face to another person via the phone especially when you might be performing another task, your expressions and appearance are being judged or you simply feel uncomfortable being watched. Videophones do have their uses and they may become ubiquitous but just because you can have a video conversation, it doesn't mean you will choose to.